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S&P cash index: Macro Analysis

Last week we got a super strong one week advance in S&P right into 21 EMA weekly line.
EMA 21 on weekly chart is a borderline in between of a bull and a bear markets.
We can identify two macro counts, a Bearish and a Bullish scenario.
In that update I will describe the Bearish SPX Weekly which I personally prefer.

Read my description of the alternative macro bullish count of S&P.
Under the Bearish count shown below S&P Made a lasting top in Jan 2022 and has been working on the very first A-B-C move down that can also be counted as a bearish 1 down, 2 up setup

S&P - weekly chart updated as of Friday, March 20th close

This is how that count looks on a daily chart (see below).

S&P - daily chart updated as of Friday, March 20th close

Now let’s zoom-in to 30 min chart shown below.

On Friday S&P hit an important 100% ext of subwave (a) up.
On a daily chart shown above you can see that wave B up had a clean (a)-(b)-(c) up structure.
On 30 min chart we are studying a micro structure of the second leg up in subwave (c) up.
Read my description of the alternative macro bullish count of S&P.

The relentless move up on Friday looked like subwave c of wave iii of (c).

It can stretch higher to 4,470 – 4,478 which is a confluence of

– 223.6% ext of wave i up ( a typical target for subwave c of wave iii up), and

– 50% retracement of the whole (a)-(b)-(c) down decline off the Jan’2022 top.

That cluster of fibs is a very strong resistance. That rally in subwave (c) of wave B up may stop at that level.

If we get a corrective a-b-c down structure to 4,306 – 4,370 that would be a micro wave iv down that can be used by bulls as a base for another rally in wave v up targeting 4,580, another strong confluence of fibs:

– 300% ext of wave i up ( a typical target for wave v up if wave iii topped at 223.6% ext, and – 66.7% retracement of the whole (a)-(b)-(c) down decline off the Jan’2022 top, and

– 138.2% ext of subwave (a) up.
Break under 4,370 would be a serious warning for bulls saying that the whole (a)-(b)-(c) up structure of wave B up has topped and wave v up to a higher high would not come. Upon completion of the (a)-(b)-(c) up structure of wave B up I expect another large decline in leg C down targeting 3,800.

S&P - 30 min chart updated as of Friday, March 20th close

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