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Its amazing that ES follows the same corrective (a) up, (b) down, (c) up structure as in Jan'2022:

Compare the (a) up, (b) down, (c) up structure played out in Jan’2022 (the first chart below)  to the A up, B down, C up structure competed yesterday (the second chart below).

hey have the following similarities:

– the very same deep micro wave ii down that retraced almost all of wave i up.
– the very same super shallow consolidation in wave iv / (iv) down.
– in Feb’22 the final push higher in wave v up did not have an a-b-c subdivision.

ES - 60 min chart, Jan'2022

The immediate expectation yesterday evening was to get a decline to test 4,480 – 4,470, the top of the previous micro swing up.

We are getting this decline pre-market.

ES has tagged that broken trend-line from above.

That means we can get some bounce here, a reaction to the overnight decline.

ES - 60 min chart updated at 8-30 AM on 3-23-2022

The main magnet for bears is 200 MA Daily (pink line).

It coincides with 50% retracement of the Jan-Feb’22 decline = 4,448-4,451.50

The critical support for bulls comes at 4,411.50 (8 EMA Daily)

This is exactly where I have support on 60 min chart = 4,415 = the low made by a micro wave iv down.

The ideal bearish tape would be to push ES under 4,415 (in an a-b-c down structure where subwave a down has completed pre-market) and then produce a very strong up bounce pretending like nothing really happened. 
The structure of that bounce and its strength would define the fate of the bearish setup…

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Previous Updates:

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