Its a good time to zoom out to evaluate a bigger picture.
We can see that off the top made in Jan’22 ES declined in a three wave structure. That three wave structure (labelled (A) down ) bottomed on Feb 24th.
That decline was followed by a clean three wave up structure that topped on March 29th (labelled as (B) up.
Off that lower high made by wave (B) up we got an impulsive looking decline that is followed by a three wave structure that so far is holding under the March high.
Bears have a lot of arguments in favor of that bearish count, scenario that considers that move up as a corrective wave (ii) u to be followed by a strong decline in wave ( iii ) down.
Now look at that huge pitchfork.
Bulls have pushed up to the limit, to the upper trendline.
It seems like over 4,495 price would break out of that channel drawn by the pitchfork.
Such a move over 4,495 would not invalidate the bearish count.
If that bearish count works out, wave ( iii ) down would find support at 123.6% ext of wave ( i ) up = 4,144 (re-test of the March low) or stretch down to 138.2% ext = 4,100, the Feb’22 low.
Bulls argue that the move up off the Feb’22 low looks like three wave up because that rally has not topped yet.
They say that the top made in late march was only the top of wave ( iii ) up.
They can argue that the decline off that late March top was wave (iv) down structured as the Double Three corrective structure.
Under that count this slow grinding move up is subwave (a) of wave ( v ) up that can stretch to 4,539 – 4,565
And the ultimate target would be to re-test the Jan’22 high made around 4,800.
At this point those two very different counts are equally probable.
Quite often we get into situation when we do NOT have one scenario that can be considered a high probable one.
What do we do when we get into that situation?
We wait until either one scenario would start looking much more probable or when those two different scenarios would argue for a move in one direction.
Under both scenarios bulls can keep pushing to 4,540.
Even under the bullish scenario that is an important resistance
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